Greek and other European shipowners are starting to turn to the newbuilding market to make opportunistic investments in the face of rising secondhand prices.
Shipyards in Japan report an uptick in speculative interest from owners in ordering directly rather than through traditional Japanese long-term chartering schemes involving local owners and finance.
There are some indications there may be better value and more scope for an upswing in values in the newbuilding market after recent secondhand price rises.
According to broker Clarksons, prices for five-year-old secondhand kamsarmaxes are up from $14m a year ago to $21.5m today, while five-year-old ultramax prices are up from $23m to $27m over the same period.
But over the same 12 months, kamsarmax newbuilding prices have hardly moved, increasing from $24.5m to $25m and ultramax newbuilding prices from $22.3m to $23.5m, suggesting prices remain low and there may be better value for investors.
Analysts suggest depressed newbuilding prices have largely been caused by excess building capacity in the market.
Interest in ordering in Japan appears to be focused on the resale or contracting of kamsarmax and ultramax bulkers with yards quoting in the region of $29m for 81,000-dwt bulkers and $26m for 61,000-dwt bulkers built to NOx Tier-III specifications.
Japanese prices are markedly higher than the market average but many owners expect to pay a premium for the improved quality.
Delivery is also an attraction of going for newbuildings over secondhand units. Delivery slots are available in 2019 and 2020, which owners are eyeing as a potential period of a sustained improvement in the dry bulk market following lower delivery volumes in 2018.
Continued low yard prices in a rising freight market has also led to a situation where even current charter rates almost fully justify investment in newbuildings.
According to London-based Maritime Strategies International, current one-year time charter rates cover 97% of the earnings required to invest in a panamax newbuilding and 93% in the case of an ultramax.