Few experts are expecting ships waiting at the Suez Canal to be diverted in droves unless the closure is confirmed to last for an extended period.
That's even though more than 150 vessels are waiting after the 20,388-teu Ever Given (built 2018) grounded in the key waterway on Tuesday, leading to a complete shutdown of traffic. The top executive of Boskalis, whose Smit Salvage is responding to the incident, said it could take weeks to refloat the vessel.
Leth Agencies counted 48 vessels were waiting at the Port Said anchorage, 70 at Suez, and 38 in the Great Bitter Lake as of Thursday morning.
Containerships would have difficult time revising their sailing schedules, especially for those serving the East Mediterranean market.
For oil and gas trades, Kpler estimates that vessels would need to add four weeks to their voyage time from Suez to north-east Europe when sailing via the Cape of Good Hope.
The sailing time from Ras Tanura to north-west Europe would be prolonged by 15 days when the Cape route is used.
The calculation is based on a vessel speed of 12 knots.
“Given the considerable increase in voyage duration, it is unlikely that anyone already in situ will divert,” analysts at the cargo intelligence provider said.
“This [traffic disruption] could cause shippers not already committed to reassess their options, but there would still need to be notice of longer running delays before those decisions were made.”
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