Wallenius Wilhelmsen does not think the ro-ro market will be hit with a deluge of newbuildings this year.
Chief executive Lasse Kristoffersen expects delivery dates for new car carriers to slip from late 2024 and 2025, as many of the yards most popular with shipowners are inexperienced in the segment.
“Will they be delivered as planned? We dare to say that we doubt that all the plans will be delivered on time,” he said on Wednesday during the fourth-quarter earnings call.
Kristoffersen said five shipyards have 66% of the orderbook and “hardly any of these have delivered ro-ro vessels before”.
Leading the way, according to Wallenius Wilhelmsen data, is China Merchants Jinling Shipyard Nanjing with 27 orders, followed by China Merchants Heavy Industry (Jiangsu) with 36; Guangzhou Shipyard International in Nansha with 32, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding’s 20 orders and Yantai CIMC Raffles Shipyard’s 17.
Together, the five yards have built just 15 pure car carriers since 2012, the company said.
“Based on experience from the past, when new yards are entering the segment ... there will be delays,” Kristoffersen said.
Company data pegs the orderbook at 36% of the global fleet, up from roughly 31% for much of late last year.
But that new capacity is expected to be swallowed up by Chinese exporters. Due to a lack of ship supply, they have turned to container ships and bulkers as demand abroad surged and China overtook Japan as the world’s largest automobile exporter.
Further driving the need for more vessels are environmental regulations from the International Maritime Organization, which Wallenius Wilhelmsen has said will force older ships to the breakers.
As it stands, the company has four ammonia and methanol-ready newbuildings on order, all at China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (Weihai).
Wallenius Wilhelmsen recorded a $134m profit for the three months ending on 31 December, down from $246m in the same period last year as shipping volumes dropped.
