Whether or not he makes a takeover play for Hoegh Autoliners, Emanuele Grimaldi is set to make some money.
Speculation Grimaldi could make a play for the Oslo-listed car carrier owner was reignited on Tuesday after the Italian magnate bumped up his stake in the company to just over 10% — but Pareto Securities analyst Eirik Haavaldsen said Grimaldi would be in for a financial windfall simply by staying a shareholder.
“We continue to find the market fears around the car carrier names as far too excessive — with longer (2-3 year) contracts at super-profit rates likely to result in 2025 being better than 2024,” the veteran analyst said, noting Hoegh Autoliners could pay out as much as NOK 60 ($5.65) per share in dividends next year.
“[The company] has played this cycle to perfection, now selling older assets at extreme prices while taking delivery of attractively priced newbuilds.”
Grimaldi opened his Hoegh Autoliners account in late April with a 5.1% position.
The move immediately had the market thinking Grimaldi would be following in compatriot Gianluigi Aponte’s footsteps after he made a play to take Gram Car Carriers private.
But Grimaldi has maintained the share purchase was a financial play made through personal investing companies, although he admitted to TradeWinds that the Grimaldi Group considered purchasing the Hoegh Autoliners shares sold by AP Moller-Maersk in December 2023.
Those shares amounted to 20% of the company.
If he does move to take the company private, Grimaldi would have to raise the offer significantly above net asset value, Fearnleys analyst Fredrik Dybwad said.
He values the company at NOK 127 per share, while Hoegh Autoliners shares rallied NOK 4.30 to NOK 137.30 on Tuesday following the news.
“We believe a potential transaction would need to be at a material premium to the current share price,” he said.
But a combination would bring together two complementary fleets.
Grimaldi Group has 20 car carriers on the water spread across several subsidiaries and another 17 on order. Hoegh Autoliners has 34 and 11 on order.
“[Hoegh Autoliners] seems like a strategic fit for Grimaldi’s car carrier operations, which is largely centred on the Middle East and Atlantic, while [Hoegh Autoliners has] a prominent presence in the Asia-Europe trade,” he said.
