Dry cargo newbuilding deliveries are set to slip to the lowest level in a decade this year, according to research from Braemar ACM.
Its figures show that 2018 will be the third year in a row during which the delivery of fresh capacity has fallen, but 2019 will reverse that pattern.
Braemar ACM counts 22.5 million dwt of fresh bulkers delivered in the first 10 months of 2018, with the figure charted to reach 27.1m dwt at the close of the year.
“This would be the lowest volume of deliveries in ten years and 28% down on 2017, a year that was already light on deliveries,” the brokerage said.
However, with low slippage and limited scrapping, dry cargo fleet growth is now forecast to run to 2.5% for 2018.
Braemar ACM added: “Deliveries have been falling since the deluge in 2012, which has helped contribute to the recovery in the market since 2016.
“However, looking at the orderbook we have reached a low point in the delivery profile and in 2019 we are set for significant increase.”
It says next year will see the highest level of dry cargo newbuilding delivers since 2013.
VLOCs, kamsarmaxes and ultramaxes will lead the way in terms of both ship numbers and fresh capacity.
“With the market expected to remain strong we expect slippage to remain low and that is factored into our forecast fleet growth of 3.3%,” the brokerage said.
