An unusual climb in the capesize market over Christmas has helped the Baltic Dry Index open 2019 on the up.
Capesize rates were today pegged at $15,344 per day by the Baltic Exchange in the first trading day of the New Year.
Cleaves Securities notes the figure marks a 4% climb from Christmas Eve, when the Baltic released its last fixtures report of 2018.
Analyst Joakim Hannisdahl described the development as positive, given rates typically plummet over the Christmas and New Year period.
However, he added the Chinese New Year holiday, Australia’s cyclone season and Brazil’s rainy season will likely add some pressure to rates in the coming months.
The present capesize market is in line with the $15,000 per day Hannisdahl is forecasting during the first quarter. It is, however, marginally below the $17,756 per day average for 2018, according to Bloomberg,
The uptick in capesizes eased the Baltic Dry Index up 11 points to 1,282 points today.
Dry cargo stocks fell by an average of 21% in 2018 despite a recovering freight market.
Analysts at Clarksons Platou Securities note China’s self-imposed coal import ban will end in February and the country has begun importing US soy beans again.
However, Chinese GDP growth is likely to slow this year and increases in iron ore shipments are probably limited in the near term, they explain.
