China’s appetite for bauxite imports continues to increase, according to Banchero Costa.
Analyst Chong Hui Ru estimates that Chinese bauxite imports have increased around 10% over the first nine months of 2018 compared to the same period of last year.
China imported 68.8 million tonnes of bauxite in 2017, up 32.8% from 51.8 million tonnes in 2016.
“The increase has continued to be driven by strong volumes from Guinea, from which we estimate shipments to China have increased close to 40% year-on-year over January to September 2018,” Chong said.
“Guinea has overtaken Australia as the top bauxite supplier to China since 2017, following extensive Chinese investment in Guinea’s mines and logistics infrastructure. While Australian supplies have fallen to second place, we estimate that their volumes to China have still increased a decent 9% over the same period.”
Chong foresees Chinese bauxite imports to remain strong for now, especially as global alumina supplies are lacking, with Brazil's major Alunorte facility only operating at half capacity and US sanctions imposed on Russian producer Rusal.
“Strong overseas demand has pushed China to become a net exporter of alumina this year, which should help to support the country’s bauxite demand, although their alumina operators are still suffering from the previous winter’s industrial curtailments and ongoing environmental checks,” she said.
“A lack of domestic bauxite supplies due to depleting resources, deteriorating ore quality, and environmental concerns are also expected to support the need for bauxite imports.”
