Newbuilding slippage will help keep a cap on bulker supply growth this year with construction yet to begin on over one-third of new ships slated to arrive in 2019, Golden Ocean says.
The bulker owner is forecasting net fleet growth of 3% during 2019, a figure which is helping it maintain a positive outlook despite rates slumping during the present quarter.
In a fourth-quarter earnings call today, Birgitte Ringstad Vartdal, Golden Ocean's chief executive, said construction has not yet started on about 36% of bulkers scheduled for delivery in 2019.
Data from Viamar and IHS Seaweb showed 40.6 million dwt of fresh bulkers were scheduled for delivery this year.
However, work has not yet started on 17.8 million dwt of these vessels, which Vartdal explained was due to owners going bankrupt or pushing back delivery.
Only 19% of the bulkers due to be delivered this year have been launched to date, the data showed.
Increase in off-hire vessels
An increase in vessels going off hire while having scrubbers or ballast water management systems fitted will also remove tonnage from the trading fleet in 2019, Vartdal said during the conference call.
She also revealed Golden Ocean’s fleet of bulkers are not sailing at full speed.
“The speed is sort of adjusted voyage by voyage and is going slightly down; it has not been running at full speed this year at all,” she said.
“I expect utilisation to be obviously lower in the first quarter [2019], once we get there.”
The John Fredriksen-controlled company also expects to see a slight uptick in capesize demolition this year.
Seven capesizes have been scrapped in 2019 compared with 18 vessels demolished in 2018, Vartdal said during the call.
The bulker orderbook stands at 11.5% of the fleet currently on the water, which Vartdal said was low in historic terms.
When asked during the call which commodities would absorb this fleet growth in 2019, Vartdal said it was too soon to say but all dry cargoes had potential of some kind.
“In the first half of [2019] there are a lot of uncertainties around the demand side,” the chief executive said.
