Wilh Wilhelmsen today presented a cautiously optimistic view of the vehicle carrier market, identifying hope in the high and heavy area beaten down by struggles in the commodity and construction businesses.
The Norwegian owner suggested its core shipping market was facing rough seas but believed it had hit bottom.
Ari Marjamaa, global head of market intelligence at Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics, suggested the sector would remain challenging for the next couple of years but could be heading for calmer waters.
"Although we might be at the darkest part of the tunnel, I think we can definitely see a shimmer of light going forward," he told a packed auditorium at the company's capital markets day.
Marjamaa explained that sales of construction equipment will bottom out this year before growing in 2017 and 2018.
At the same time a lack of investment in mining equipment given a downturn in that industry had led to the buildup of latent demand, particularly in Australia, he said.
New trends in the automotive industry were also embraced, with the emergence of electric vehicles and car sharing initiatives leading to a growing user base, new drivers and more kilometres being covered.
Wilhelmsen placed utilisation of the global car carrier fleet at around 80%, below the 90% figure DNB Markets termed optimal.
At the same time the sector still has a number of newbuildings on order.
Jan Eyvin Wang, chief executive of Wilh Wilhelmsen ASA, said the global car carrier orderbook sat at 11.3% of the global fleet.
This means that while it is not a good time to take delivery of a speculative newbuilding, those in need of capacity can secure it "dirt cheap", Wang said.
"We expect the amount of recycling to increase. The question is will it increase enough to create balance? We don't think so, short-term," he explained.
