The meeting of the International Maritime Organization's key environment committee has set up the shipping regulator to debate what could be the adoption of a zero-carbon target by 2050 at a planned strategy review.
And if the statements of IMO delegations are a signal of the outcome, that target may not include the word "net".
The outcome of the Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting showed a plurality of nations focusing on full decarbonisation by 2050, rather than a net-zero target that would include offsetting of hydrocarbon fuels.
"In the course of the discussion, the committee noted that a number of delegations stressed the need for the organisation to send a clear signal on its commitment to reduce GHG emissions from ships to achieve zero emissions by 2050, as stated by many, or net-zero emissions by 2050, as stated by others," the IMO said in its summary of the MEPC meeting.
Tristan Smith, a reader in shipping at University College London's UCL Energy Institute, said it was disappointing that more countries did not support a resolution proposed by Kiribati, the Marshall Islands and the Solomon Islands that would have declared last week that zero carbon is the goal for shipping by the middle of the century.
But he said that the official report on the outcome of the meeting contained language that the MEPC "recognised the need to strengthen the ambition" of the IMO's greenhouse gas strategy as part of the already planned revision process.
Though only 15 nations supported the island nations' zero-carbon resolution, a counting by consultancy UMAS found another 14 expressed support for the substance of the resolution and only 17 were outright opposed.
Smith, who is also a director at UMAS, said resolve to fully decarbonise is likely to increase over time and that the prospects are "very high" that zero-carbon target will be adopted.
"I don't see why it won't be zero by 2050. I think that's a very solid prospect," he told TradeWinds.
Classification society ABS noted that the MEPC has invited concrete proposals for its meeting next year, with a view toward finalising the strategy revision in the spring of 2023.
An UMAS count of comments at the IMO found that of nations showing support for zero-carbon emissions in 2050, only five referred to "net zero".
"That's really important because 'net' is the most damaging thing possible for shipping's decarbonisation," Smith said. "Shipping needs investment into new fuels, and a fleet able to use those new fuels, and if you say net you legitimise offsetting."
He said offsetting has traditionally been at a low cost.
When the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) announced in October that it would support boosting the ambitions of the IMO, it expressed support for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
At the time, ICS deputy secretary general Simon Bennett told TradeWinds that the terminology was aligned with that used by United Nations bodies.
"They recognise the most important thing is to get CO2 emissions down by 2050 but are open-minded about different solutions for doing that," he said.
And, he added, net zero leaves open options for fuels like biofuels in the mix for shipping, carbon capture and storage, and atmospheric carbon extraction.
