International shipping is set for a turbulent and expensive 2030s if it fails to invest in vessel efficiency before a shift to new fuels, a new report has found.
Market barriers and industry failings have capped investments in cutting fuel use which will be vital for shipping to play its role in keeping global warming below 1.5C of pre-industrial levels, said researchers at UK-based consultancy UMAS.
Shipping needs to cut greenhouse emissions by 37% by 2030, compared with 2008 levels, to remain in line with those efforts following by much deeper cuts in the following decade.
With new fuel technologies still in their infancy, vessel efficiency will be the key driver for the remainder of this decade, said researchers.
The UMAS team said vessel efficiency improvements of 60% will be needed by 2030, compared with 2008 levels, but owners are not taking advantage of existing technologies.
Tristan Smith, one of the authors of the report, said: “International shipping is currently on track for a complacent 2020s, followed by a highly disruptive 2030s caused by a turbulent, expensive and late fuel transition.
“At present the 2030 ambition/target and, by association, the efficiency opportunity, are not getting the attention they deserve at the expense of the industry and those it serves.”
The report highlighted key areas where efficiency gains could be made including the use of wind propulsion, virtual arrival at ports to reduce berthing wait times, hull coatings and improved ship maintenance.
Fragmented industry
But the report said there were barriers to their full use despite the technology being available. It highlighted low carbon emissions targets set by the IMO, limited ambitions for its environmental measures and failures of a “fragmented and siloed international shipping industry” that only takes a short-term view on return on investments.
The report called on individual countries and regions to take a lead to promote more efficient vessels by encouraging ships with the highest Carbon intensity indicator (CII) ratings to use their ports. CII is a measure of how efficiently a ship transports goods.
Jean-Marc Bonello, principal consultant at UMAS, said that shipping has broadly embraced the idea that aligning with the 1.5C goal can only be achieved through the fuel transition.
“However, this may distract from the fact that significant gains in energy efficiency through technologies, including wind assist, and operational measures are needed this decade to start reducing greenhouse gases now,” he said.
“There are well known options, that will not see significant uptake without much stronger regulatory and voluntary focus and attention.”
