As US voters are about to elect a new president investors and analysts try to predict the impact of the election result on the global stock markets.
Fearnley Securities shipping analyst Fredrik Dybwad in Oslo believes tanker, gas and container stocks could rise if Donald Trump wins.
“Off the bat, I would probably say that tankers, containers, and LPG may have a small rally if Trump emerges victorious based on his comments regarding increased oil production and tariffs on Chinese goods,” Dybwad told TradeWinds.
For tanker stocks, there could be a potential positive long-term impact for VLCCs following more US onshore drilling activity.
On the other hand, would resolutions of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East harm suezmax, aframax and product tanker markets, Dybwad explained. However, increased US oil production may offset slightly on the suezmax and aframax side, but the total impact would still be negative, he said.
“Gas may be a winner if Trump wins the election, as he is likely to stimulate LNG projects and LPG indirectly through more US shale oil production,” he added.
TradeWinds reporter yesterday that Oystein Kalleklev, chief executive of shipowner Flex LNG, said on LinkedIn that the election will have “profound consequences” for the LNG trade.
“The federal moratorium on new LNG export licenses by the US Department of Energy will most likely be removed much quicker by a Trump administration than Harris,” he said.
If Trump wins increasing trade tensions with China could lead to a front-running in the container markets as potential tariffs on Chinese goods are rumoured to be implemented in 2026.
Dybwad said it could result in higher volumes and better-than-expected rates in 2025 before a massive hangover in 2026.
“Tariffs can of course be implemented sooner, impacting container volumes in 2025 negatively”, he added.
If Kamala Harris wins Dybwad sees initially a “status quo in all segments.”
“Potentially less drilling activity may be negative for tankers and LPG long-term,” he said.
“LNG projects may have longer lead times for approvals, which may also be negative for LNG shipping longer term and prolong the current slump in earnings,” he added.
Danske Bank’s fund manager Lars Erik Moen sees swings in the stock markets in the period after the election.
“We assume volatile markets until the transition is done. Both candidates are relatively business-friendly, and the return on the stock market was positive both when Trump was president and when Harris was vice president,” Moen told TradeWinds.
Moen expects more protectionism and tariffs if Trump wins, which is negative for the shipping industry.
His funds are underweight shipping going into the election.
“Increased protectionism reduces global growth and global transport demand,” he said.
“We do not believe that the outcomes have great significance, and have not made any changes to our shipping shareholdings based on our analysis of various election results,” Moen said.
