Fearnley Securities has bemoaned an "abysmal" year for capital activity in shipping, and it does not foresee any improvement in 2021.
The Norwegian investment bank blamed muted fundraising in 2020 on the Covid-19 pandemic.
Fearnley has tallied a total of $3.9bn raised last year, down 52% from already soft 2019 levels.
Crucially this excludes the cruiseship sector, where owners have desperately been adding to liquidity as fleets were idled.
The total across bond and share markets was nearly 63% lower than 2017 for conventional shipping.
Fearnley analysts Espen Landmark Fjermestad, Peder Nicolai Jarlsby and Ulrik Mannhart said that at the start of last year, there had been expectations of an increase in activity.
They added that the bond market kicked off in a "quite active" fashion with Stolt-Nielsen, SFI Corp, Odfjell and Hoegh LNG testing the waters.
However, as Covid-19 started to accelerate, capital market activity dwindled.
Slight recovery through 2020
"Although activity picked up somewhat throughout the year, it was overall an abysmal year for capital raises across all shipping segments," the analysts said.
Of the $3.9bn total, $1.27bn was equity, down 2% from 2019 levels and the lowest figure since 2012, when $1bn was raised.
Already this year Zim is looking to carry out a $100m IPO in New York, while Norwegian shipbuilding group Havyard has signalled its intention to float its "cleantech" technology and design operations on the Euronext exchange, potentially in Paris or Brussels in the first quarter.
Danish wind vessel owner Ziton is also eyeing an Oslo IPO.
For bulkers, share deals were primarily smaller at below $25m, with the exception of Scorpio Bulkers' $76m raise in the summer.
The boxship sector saw limited action amongst traditional players, with MPC Container Ships' $30m deal the "most noticeable", Fearnley said.
Activity in tankers consisted mostly of Nordic American Tankers' at-the-market offerings and several transactions involving smaller players.
In gas shipping, GasLog raised $36m and Golar LNG $96m.
Chinese state shipping group Cosco was responsible for the biggest single equity deal of $717m.
Bond investors were tapped for $2.66bn in 2020, Fearnley calculated.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen banked $224m of this, Stena AB $700m, Navigator Gas $100m and American Shipping Company $200m.
French container line CMA CGM topped the list at $623m.
Next wave coming?
"Looking ahead, we do not [see] a material change in capital markets activity on the equity side," the Fearnley analysts said.
"We believe the next wave of activity will come in conjunction with new regulations and new propulsion technologies. The world fleet is ageing, though the propulsion puzzle is still far from solved, suggesting there will be a major need for a fleet renewal sometime over the coming decade."
Clarksons Research figures in November had showed 2020 was shaping up to be the biggest year for shipping capital for at least 10 years, due to cruiseship owners being forced to bolster their finances.
Clarksons said initial public offerings in the last 12 months saw $770m raised, with bonds accounting for $20.35bn of the $25.98bn overall total, and follow-on share offerings $4.86bn.
Passenger shipping made up $19.3bn of the total or 73%, with tankers on $2.7bn, bulkers and gas ships on $500m each and boxships at $1.5bn, while owners operating in diverse sectors raised $1.6bn.
Russian state giant Sovcomflot finally succeeded with its $480m Moscow IPO, while Golar LNG "remains committed" to spinning off its downstream business into its planned new entity, Hygo Energy Transition.
