A flow of vessels out of the market for scrubbers to be installed boosted rates for big tankers, large bulkers and containerships in the past month, according to Clarksons Platou Securities.
Vessels heading to drydock to have the exhaust gas cleaning equipment installed ahead of new IMO 2020 rules has long been identified to have a positive impact on the supply and demand balance of major shipping markets.
Frode Morkedal and his colleagues at Clarksons Platou believe the anticipated trend was felt physically in the past month and will continue to influence earnings in the year head.
“Trade Wars notwithstanding, we expect the fleet adjustment that scrubber installations represent should continue to support charter rates over the next 12 months,” the analysts wrote in a report today.
The VLCC market has seen the highest scrubber take-up and the analysts estimate 0.9% of the fleet was out of service for retrofits this month.
Morkedal says this helped to raise spot rates in the sector to an average of $19,000 per day in June, ahead of the $16,000 per day forecast had those vessels continued to trade.
A similar trend was seen in the capesize space, which has been on an upward trend after a difficult start to the year.
Clarksons Platou Securities estimates the 0.3% of the capesize fleet heading to dry dock for scrubbers edged rates up to $15,000 per day in June, ahead of the $14,000 per day otherwise expected.
In the container market, they calculate the 0.5% of the fleet over 8,000 teu taken out for scrubbers to be fitted led to a boost for between $1,000 and $2,000 per day this month.
Morkedal concluded: “Combined with the approx. 20-year low in newbuild orderbooks (which will lead to low capacity additions over the next two years) and slow steaming potential (as a result of the increasing fuel prices next year), we find the supply side for shipping is probably the best we have seen the last 15-20 years.”
