China is expected to have the highest demand for LNG with worldwide use set to nearly triple by 2030, analyst projections say.
The country may burn 214 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) by then -- more than quadruple today's consumption -- under a federal law requiring 15% of its energy come from LNG.
As a result, LNG imports would have to grow by 13% a year compared to today's growth rate of 9%, a 56-page report led by Stifel analyst Ben Nolan says.
Startup of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline in early 2020 may slow imports, however, by adding 27 million mpta to the supply.
They may also be hampered by 7% annual growth in domestic shale and offshore production through at least 2021.
Still, China should be the "most important market" by then, given it is expected to consume 27% of the world's LNG.
Today, the nation accounts for almost 17% of 300 million mtpa worldwide, compared with Japan using up 29%, according to the report.
What does higher demand mean for shipping?
Global consumption is set almost triple over the next two decades to 790 million mtpa, possibly resulting in expansion of the LNG carrier market, Nolan told TradeWinds.
"Keep in mind this is an 11 year projection," he said after hosting a conference call on the report.
"That is plenty of time for ships to be built and outside of the next 24 months it's hard to make projections on the carrier side."
Regardless, LNG's demand and abundance are pretty sure bets over the next few decades, he said.
"There is plenty to go around," he said.
"The bottleneck at least for the next few decades is likely to be infrastructure not resource."
