There may be no more LNG left to export, according to Evercore's Sean Morgan.
In a note published on Tuesday, Morgan said LNG prices have hit record highs ahead of the northern hemisphere winter peak season and carrier rates have failed to follow, suggesting there is simply no more gas to move.
"With the [arbitrage] wide open and sufficient vessels to carry LNG to gas-hungry ports of demand, the only explanation is that there is no incremental gas available to carry," he said.
The note said prices for gas in Europe and north-eastern Asia have shot up, eclipsing $26 per MMBtu, while US prices have remained low.
Typically, LNG prices and carrier rates are correlated, Morgan said, but carrier rates have not spiked this time. Figures from Poten & Partners peg the weekly spot rate for 160,000-cbm carriers at between $70,000 and $75,000 per day and not far from the 2021 average.
Morgan said some of that is attributable to newbuilding deliveries, but the greater explanation is a lack of LNG supply available to be moved.
He said additional capacity at Cheniere's Sabine Pass facility would add some gas, but most of the projects set to come online in 2022 are limited, while demand appears to be staying high.
Last week, brokers described the charter market as "weird", as charterers rushed to fix LNG carriers on long-term charters.
Sources told TradeWinds that there are practically no modern vessels available for charter, as charterers look to lock in ships for as long as possible.
