VLGC spot rates are continuing to set astonishing new records as Indian deals drive the market.
Brokers also said the US export sector remains strong, with earnings showing no signs of slowing.
The Baltic Exchange assessment for Thursday showed Middle East Gulf to Asia trips at $171,800 per day.
This is up 127% in a month.
And on US to Asia runs via Panama, ships are earning $148,800.
Breakeven for the vessels is assessed at around $22,000 per day by investment bank Fearnley Securities.
Earnings broke new ground last week at $141,800 per day, beating the level seen in 2014 and 2015.
Shipbroker Fearnleys said markets continue to be tight, and the regular fixing window is well into the last decade of October.
Sentiment from the US and a record number of Indian import deals have fed across into the Middle East freight market.
Fearnley Securities is tipping western rates to rise further, given their discount to Asian numbers.
Six spot fixtures have been concluded from the US for November and the tonnage list for the first half of that month is looking thin.
Big profit coming
This will all translate into huge earnings for owners.
Fearnley Securities analysts led by Oystein Vaagen believe Singapore owner BW LPG has achieved spot bookings of around $80,000 per day in the third quarter.
But assuming two-month forward bookings into the middle of November at $100,000 per day, earnings per share could hit $1.35, against consensus of $0.70.
“While achieving those numbers are unlikely, we believe it’s now fair to say that Q4 will be stronger than Q3, and the first quarter of 2024 will also see estimates rise,” the analysts said.
The same applies to peers like Dorian LPG and Avance Gas.
The investment bank still has a “buy” rating on these stocks.
Clarksons Research said the Middle East Gulf market appears well-supported in the near-term, while west of Suez, the arbitrage to Asia remains wide.
