So what have you marked on your shipping calendar for this year?
TradeWinds takes a serious, speculative and sideways look at a few of the things that are, or could be, coming up in 2024.
Lonesome
Keep your eyes peeled in January for this year’s only VLCC newbuilding.
Yes, despite all the talk of an incoming flood of new orders, according to Tankers International, the anticipated influx narrows down to just one lonely delivery for 2024 — AET’s Shell-chartered, 300,000-dwt LNG dual-fuelled newbuilding Eagle Veracruz, which is due to be handed over by Hanwha Ocean.
“This compares to an average of 39 deliveries per year since 2000,” TI said.
The Eagle Veracruz was contracted at about $100m. Today VLCC pricing is at around $128m. Who will be the first up to boost the flagging VLCC orderbook this year?
Time to renew again
The 20 February annual protection and indemnity policy renewal is not an occasion shipowners will be looking forward to.
Historically, the date was used to mark the start of the melting of Baltic ice. These days it has become associated with the end of fractious negotiations between shipowners, their brokers and underwriters over general increases, deductibles and loss records.
Once again, in 2024 underwriters will be asking shipowners to pay more. One cause for cheer is at least the rate of increase has started to slow.
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Next takeover tussle
An 18-month stand-off between John Fredriksen and the Saverys family over Euronav was finally resolved this winter, with Frontline landing the largest VLCC sale-and-purchase deal ever seen.
Now Kjell Inge Rokke and fellow Norwegian A-lister Christen Sveaas are going toe-to-toe in a public battle over Solstad Offshore.
Petros Pappas moved much more stealthily and quickly and we may not have to wait long to see whether his Star Bulk Carriers’ all-share offer for Eagle Bulk Shipping will hold up against potential competitors.
The deadline for competing bids is Wednesday. Eagle Bulk can still pick a topping bidder after that, but the penalty fee to Star doubles to $20m.
Looking further into 2024, is this the year that Fredriksen finally tries to move on to another large tanker owner?
He has held a 16.6% stake in New York’s International Seaways since 2022. Let’s see if the poison pill in place proves too much for Fredriksen to swallow.
Broker moves
So where will sale-and-purchase chief Sebastian Davenport-Thomas land in 2024? The rumour mill is already churning with talk that he has turned down one suitor after his exit from his lead position at Braemar in September with a shortlist of at least three major shops being talked about around the market.
On the more macro scale, are there any more broker mergers in the works? In 2023, Fearnleys was flagged up as having an appetite for more beyond its buyout of Ocean Shipbrokers, with eyes on some US shops, or has Maersk Brokers’ — now MB Shipbrokers — management buyout at the year-end floated an alternative model to follow?
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Big birthday
One of shipping’s best-known faces has a landmark birthday to celebrate on 10 May.
John Fredriksen is set to celebrate his 80th year and from all accounts is still hard at work, with the odd fishing trip thrown in for some downtime.
Will he be looking for a quieter 2024 after the tussle with Compagnie Maritime Belge that engaged him for the past 18 months?
Landmark newbuildings
While new VLCCs may be in unusually short supply, that does not mean 2024 will lack reasons to break out the champagne to welcome important ship launches.
Catching the eye in January is Bocimar with a groundbreaking ammonia-ready newcastlemax, the first of a series contracted in 2021 at Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry.
Before Easter, the first liquefied CO2 carrier — sporting Flettner rotors and air lubrication — for Norway’s Northern Lights carbon capture project will deliver in China to start a bareboat charter with K Line.
And by the end of the summer, Leon Patitsas and his Atlas Maritime will lay their hands on the first of its LNG-capable car carrier with ammonia-capable auxiliary batteries, appropriately named Electric Star.
Rated
Finally, after a year-long build-up, from the start of the second quarter of 2024, ships will have their first formal Carbon Intensity Indicator ratings determined.
While many owners and analysts have been logging and publishing estimated ratings for months, starting this year CII must be calculated and reported to the Data Collection System verifier before 31 March and for each following year.
In its latest Green Technology Tracker, Clarksons said: “We estimated that under CII, around 45% of today’s tanker, bulk carrier and container fleets will be D or E-rated if they are still trading in 2026 and have not modified speed or specification.”
Prepare for the start of some serious fleet-renewal moves.
Summer fun
It’s Posidonia time again in the first week of June, and it’s sure to be another vibrant week in Athens.
Cash-rich shipowners eyeing fresh opportunities in volatile markets will ensure the networking buzz at myriad receptions and parties will be as entertaining as ever.
And don’t forget Posidonia’s flagship conference, our TradeWinds Shipowners Forum on Tuesday 4 June, where we’ll hear from some of the biggest names in the business.
A week of “work” has never seemed so much fun.
