Fearnley Securities maintains a positive view on maritime companies this year, in the teeth of concerns about an economic slowdown.
“We remain bullish on most shipping segments and see the gas carrier and car carrier segments as our top picks for 2023,” analysts at the Oslo-based house said in an annual outlook released on Monday.
LNG vessels will continue enjoying tight freight markets, Fearnley said.
“We believe it will take time to solve the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s relationship to the rest of Europe,” the report said, pointing to a rush of at least 20 European utilities to secure long-term supplies of LNG from Qatar and the US.
“If China recovers from its Covid issues, which is widely expected for 2023, then Chinese LNG cargoes will mostly end up in China rather than being resold to Europe,” it added.
Owners of LPG ships will see rates drop next year but a “super profit” could be on the cards in 2024, Fearnley said.
The Norwegian analysts' optimism extends to car carriers as well.
Even though a recession could curb car sales as a whole, analysts estimate that seaborne vehicle transport is likely to remain profitable for shipowners who benefit from a shortfall in vessels, low global inventories, increasing electric vehicle sales and increased exports from China.
With relatively few tankers under construction and post-Covid China holding out promise for bulkers, Fearnley Securities sees a “highly bullish… long-term story” in both sectors.
The only outlier are container ships. “Pre-demolition fleet growth will be roughly 10% next year and in 2024, which combined with lower consumer spending on goods sets a muted market outlook,” according to the report.
“The large question now [on container ships] is on counterparty risks,” the analysts added.
