The International Energy Agency has forecast a 60% drop in high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) demand next year.
But it said that following the IMO 2020 low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) rules entering into force on 1 January, marine gasoil will see demand more than double.
The IEA said that supplies of LSFO will initially be limited, so shipowners will likely go for more expensive gasoil.
It said that next year, HSFO demand will drop from 3.5m barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4m bpd.
Gasoil will see a rise to 2m bpd from 0.9m bpd.
Demand for the low-sulphur alternative should hit 1m bpd next year and 1.8m by 2024.
Gasoil will peak in 2020 and fall to 1.8m bpd by 2024, it forecast. Prices could rise 20% due to a shortfall in supply next year.
The IEA estimates that about 4,000 scrubbers will be installed by 2020, consuming around 680,000 bpd of fuel.
The agency expects unwanted HSFO to be used for cement plants and power generation, particularly in the Middle East.
It said that non-compliant vessels will account for 16% of HSFO demand in 2020.
