It is hard to think about Christmas in the middle of a summer heatwave, but retailers in the northern hemisphere are shivering. A cocktail of circumstances — some expected, some not — have knocked global liner logistics for six.
New Covid-19 lockdowns in southern China and mounting port congestion there and in western Europe have upset schedules.
That is on top of box shortages, continuing Covid-related crew-change difficulties and the fallout from Evergreen Marine’s Suez Canal blockage in March.
Trouble for toy sellers, then — but more profits for the liner operators with a freight rates bonanza.
If 2020 was a financial year from hell for many shipowners due to the pandemic, 2021 is looking heavenly for some.
The ClarkSea Index has reached heights not seen since the boom times just before the 2008 financial crash. The symbol of shipping health has been driven dramatically upwards due to the soaring cost of putting goods on containerships.
Extra momentum for the ClarkSea Index has been provided by a dry bulk sector propelled forward by strong demand for iron ore, grains and other commodities.
But it’s not all plain sailing. Container operators are busy trying to find alternative discharge points due to lockdowns in Yantian in the Shenzhen region of southern China. A new coronavirus outbreak has trapped boxes and triggered port congestion, with up to two-week delays in the region.
Shipowners may not be enjoying the logistical problems, but freight rates on the China to US and Europe routes have hit record levels.
The disruption has affected western European ports too, with severe congestion at Felixstowe in eastern England, Antwerp and now Hamburg in particular.
Shipowners may not be enjoying the logistical problems, but freight rates on the China to US and Europe routes have hit record levels
All this ahead of late summer, bringing peak demand from retailers trying to stock up for Christmas.
Clarksons Platou Securities, the investment banking arm of Clarksons, has been revising upwards its profit forecasts for container operators.
Even panamaxes that were deemed redundant by the widening of the Panama Canal five years ago have revved back to life.
Vessel values across the classes have been increasing, and although last year was difficult for many maritime sectors, leading boxship operators fared well financially by reducing capacity and keeping freight rates buoyant despite lower demand.
They were also helped by a collapse in oil and therefore bunker prices. This situation has now gone into reverse, with the price of Brent blend crude soaring to $73 per barrel.
AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s largest container ship operator, recorded the highest quarterly profits in its history last month.
Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd net profits rose from €25m ($30.3m) for the first half of 2020 to €1.2bn in the first three months of this year.
Making hay while the sun shines
Surging confidence has lifted stock market values, with the share price of Cosco Shipping Holdings — the container arm of China Cosco Shipping — hitting a 13-year high. The CNY 26 ($4) recorded on 15 June compares with CNY 3 at this stage last year, although it did briefly hit the CNY 60 mark in October 2007 — pre-financial crash.
Other Far East and Asian liner operators have been witnessing similarly exhilarating spikes in their stock prices.
Bulkers, unlike the liner operators, which could use their alliances to reduce capacity, had a dreadful time in 2020. They were hammered as China and Asia, the demand engine for raw materials, closed or slowed down for Covid.
The bulker turnaround this year has been equally remarkable as China’s steel manufacturers and coal-fired power stations got back into gear.
The Baltic Dry Index was up at 2,944 points on 15 June — 200% higher than where it was at this time last year.
Rising interest in bulkers and the financial firepower of liner operators were neatly highlighted by US-listed pure containership company Costamare, which has snapped up a fleet of 16 bulkers between 33,000 dwt and 85,000 dwt. The purchases were made on the back of Costamare’s highest quarterly profits unveiled at the start of the month.
Shipowners are making hay while the sun shines, but there is an extra chilly air in Santa’s retail grotto.
