The Norwegian krone has had one rough year after another, but some here in Oslo think that could help Norway stay relevant as a shipping centre.
"The weakening of the krone has made Norway a cheap place to do business from," the head of one well-known shipping company here told me this week. "There has been an insane change in the value of the krone, from 6.5 to the dollar to nine, 9.5, 10 — and it makes a big difference in a dollar-denominated business like shipping."
An opening
He thinks that could even lead to new shipping companies being set up here.
"Looking at our company internally, if we were going to add staff, among all our global offices, Oslo would be the cheapest per head," he said. "It would be cheaper to hire people in Oslo than in Singapore, and if location were not a consideration for the job, that's what we would do."
Not all Norwegians share that cheerful perspective on the state of their currency.
Ever since late 2014 when the price of crude oil crashed, the Norwegian krone has been losing value against the dollar and the euro. Against the greenback, it is two-thirds of its former self.
In March this year, the krone suffered a further dramatic hit from which it has recovered in arithmetical terms, but not psychologically.
Thanks to the oil price war between Russia and Opec against the background of generally dysfunctional Covid-19 market conditions, the krone then suffered a 14% one-day drop in value against both the dollar and the euro.
It soon crawled up from that vertical trench, but only to resume its slower long-term decline.
That is bad news for the expense account of the Norwegians based in New York. But there is a silver lining for Norwegian business folk in export-orientated or otherwise globally competitive industries. And for homesick noggins, the old hometown is now a bargain.
Oslo is no longer the home of the $15 pint of beer, and a Singapore office no longer costs less per head than one in the Norwegian capital
So, will global shipping soon be moving its happy hour from Club Street to Aker Brygge? Maybe not.
But owners, brokers and others with a foot here and a foot there are no longer automatically shifting the weight from the Norwegian foot to the Asian one, when it comes time for new hires.
The paradox is that the shipping dollar has no homeland.
Someday when Covid-19 is a mere memory and globetrotting has once again become a routine chore, you will find yourself in a pub in Singapore, Shanghai, New York or Dubai seeking distraction at day's end.
Norwegian chatter
You will suddenly hear one or more Scandinavian language spoken nearby by a little band of cheerful persons of a certain age.
You will have been here before, and you will know what to expect now: shipping gossip unhampered by excessive sobriety. You will sit quietly, peel one or more ears, and try to pick up what you can before awkwardly insinuating yourself into the festivities.
Or at least, that is what you will try to do if you are me. Because whatever people may say to the contrary notwithstanding, Scandinavians do like to talk.
And, of course, to travel. The Scandinavian shipping industry has no borders. Scandinavian shipping long ago succumbed to those "temptations to belong to other nations" that famous English seafarer Ralph Rackstraw resisted. It gladly follows the global call of the shipping dollar.
But hello! The shipping dollar just called and left a message for you — and it was calling from an Oslo number. The message was that the Norwegian krone is cheap now. Oslo is no longer the home of the $15 pint of beer, and a Singapore office no longer costs less per head than one in the Norwegian capital.
Nobody needs to tell a shipping executive that human resources, such as tonnage and cargoes, are subject to geographical arbitrage. For years, that principle has been driving shipping's centre of gravity steadily eastwards, and helping make legacy shipping centres such as Oslo uncertain of their future.
Shipping can generally hang up a shingle anywhere and is always curious about places that can offer a well-educated pool of industrious, multilingual worker bees — especially if those places are also blessed with reasonable commercial real-estate prices, reliable public transport, social stability, and OK broadband.
Foreign exchange rates could make that sound like a description of Oslo, Norway.
