The two most senior cruise executives are brimming with confidence about the future of their sector, despite the commercial conflagration caused by coronavirus.
Arnold Donald of Carnival Corp and Royal Caribbean Cruises chief executive Richard Fain are talking about a comeback, with agents talking up ticket sales.
The global cruiseship fleet is pretty much still tied up, the companies’ share prices continue to be hammered, and court actions by sick passengers are mounting.
To add to the commercial carnage, the US economy has been badly hit, unemployment is rising and luxury spending would seem unlikely. This is a sector that depends on discretionary spending, after all.
‘A hunger for cruise'
But Fain told Travel Weekly “there’s really a [cruise demand] hunger out there” and “people are eager to socialise again, and that’s where cruising comes in”.
Donald is equally upbeat, predicting that with a slow build-up in fleet size, “it’s very logical to presume there will be excess demand for the capacity available”.
The key US health regulator, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has a “no sail” order in place for ships with more than 250 passengers, “at least” until 24 July.
The Canadian government has declared that any cruiseship that carries more than 100 people will be prohibited from operating until the end of October.
Australia has extended its international cruiseship ban by three months to 17 September.
Although Carnival and Royal Caribbean have not made any firm statement about when they definitely will be offering services, they are watching the situation closely.
Limited August start?
There are hopes that they can begin to start a small number of services from 1 August, but they admit this is subject to change. P&O Cruises, a Carnival subsidiary, announced on Tuesday that lay-up of its six vessels would continue until 15 October.
Certainly, there are indications that passengers are continuing to book cruises in 2021, but these are generally subject to easy cancellation terms.
The newest start-up, Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Voyages, says its first vessel, Scarlet Lady, will not be in action until 16 October. Branson, like others, has already set two previous deadlines that have come and gone in quick succession.
These new cruises will be organised differently, as they have to be after the industry was accused of operating ‘floating petri dishes’ for Covid-19
Bahamas Paradise Cruise Line has said it is gearing up to restart its 1,900-passenger Grand Celebration (built 1987) for a trip on 25 July from Florida to Grand Bahama Island.
Limited shore excursions
A second ship, the 1,680-capacity Grand Classica (built 1991), will follow on 2 October, while small US river operators are getting ready for sailings within weeks.
The American Queen Steamboat Co is preparing the 166-passenger American Duchess for an “Antebellum South” tour on the Mississippi River.
These cruises will be organised differently, as they have to be after the industry was accused of operating “floating petri dishes” for Covid-19.
There is talk of social distancing protocols, temperature checks, an end to self-service buffets and limited shore excursions.
Donald said: “What we know is when people get on our ships, they will sense and feel our priority is excellence in public health and in protocols.”
But the exact shape of this — at least for the industry giants — is still being worked out, given the changing situation and knowledge of the virus.
Carnival and Royal Caribbean are not even sure yet which markets will be served, as lockdown restrictions are being lifted in some regions more quickly than others.
Customers stay loyal
So there is light at the end of the tunnel. But clearly it is a far cry from six months ago, when Carnival had just unveiled record profits and revenues for 2019. In December, Donald was predicting record occupancy levels, with even more ship capacity being laid on. The Carnival share price hit $52. Now it hovers around $17.
Serious financial losses have clearly been sustained by all the cruiseship operators forced to idle their fleets this year.
Yet despite the squalls, the industry seems to have largely retained the loyalty of its customer base and be set for a return — starting on the Mississippi River.
As the former Mississippi steamboat pilot Mark Twain might have put it: reports of the industry’s death have been greatly exaggerated.
