A UBS analyst said tensions between China and South Korea may have a short-term impact on cruise demand for the New York-listed giants.
But China's role as the hottest growth market for the industry remains intact, said analyst Robin Farley, who covers leisure stocks for the investment bank.
Under pressure from Beijing officials, major Chinese tour groups are reportedly halting sales of future sales of tours to South Korea, a move that would impact cruises calling in the country.
Tensions over Thaad system
The effective cruise sale ban comes amid rising tensions over South Korea's decision to host the US military's Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system (Thaad), which China has branded a threat to regional security.
TradeWinds already reported last month that MSC Cruises, Princess Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line have reduced trips from China to South Korea after Beijing sought to pressure travel volumes to its regional neighbour.
China has ramped up that pressure. Farley told clients today that one large cruise seller confirmed that the company has been given verbal notice to stop selling cruises to South Korea.
But she pointed out that the order does not impact cruises that are already sold.
"While this may disrupt short-term demand, we continue to see China as a growing market over the long term, given the emerging middle class and the focus on tourism and travel as one of Beijing's economic pillars," she told clients.
South Korea is one of two top destinations for Chinese cruise travellers, and the pressure from Beijing is already leading to a shift of itineraries toward Japan, the other top destination.
Royal Caribbean has 9% of its capacity dedicated to China this year, while 6% of Carnival itineraries are serving that market.
Norwegian Cruise Line will have 4% to 5% of its capacity in China when it enters the market in June, according to UBS.
