Clarksons Platou Securities has said improving port call figures beg the question of whether world trade has passed the bottom as the coronavirus crisis continues.
The investment banking arm of shipbroker Clarksons said global trade appears to have reversed weakening trends, with activity levels picking up in recent days and rates of decline slowing.
However, head of research Turner Holm said overall port calls remain about 15% below levels from last year.
Clarksons Research Services, another Clarksons subsidiary, shows China is still the area of highest growth, but Europe is improving, along with major economies such as India and the US.
In the past month, China has sustained an "astonishing" 20% average year-on-year growth in vessel visits, Holm said, reversing declines of 35% in mid-February.
"This rapid and persistent turnaround in the data suggests that China is well along in its economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis which began in the country," he said.
At the end of last week, shipments into China by large bulkers rose to the highest level since mid-January, which may indicate the country is preparing for fiscal stimulus, he added.
Clarksons even logged the first cruiseship call in China since January.
Sick man getting out of bed
Europe, which Clarksons Research dubbed "the sick man of the global economy", is said to be "getting out of bed".
The continent may be enduring a brutal economic contraction, but it is on the edge of recovery, or at least that is what the port call data could be showing, Holm said.
Ship visits are down 30% year on year, but this is better than last week, when the figure was 40%.
"As multiple countries across the continent begin taking small steps towards opening, we are optimistic and will be watching the data for signs of further improvement," the company said.
Shipments by deep-sea cargo vessels are now nearly flat versus last year, having earlier seen contractions of 15% at the worst points in mid-April.
Similarly, the US may have seen the worst of the crisis, with port activity up 8% on its nadir in mid-April.
Total visits are down about 4% to 5% year on year.
Holm said global port calls by tankers appear to be weakening worldwide, however, possibly driven by less trade and more floating storage.
