Governments from around the world will converge on London on 12 December in the hope of moving closer to a consensus on setting more ambitious decarbonisation targets for shipping.
The International Maritime Organization needs to come closer to a decision if it is to meet its 2023 deadline of adjusting its long-term targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to match the decarbonisation targets of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Ahead of next week’s Marine Environment Protection Committee, the commitment to achieving zero-carbon emissions by 2050 from influential IMO members such as the European Union, Japan, the UK and the US is as strong as ever — and seems the most likely outcome.
But there is a debate to be had over whether the target should be zero GHG emissions, or net zero. The EU and the US are calling for emissions to be assessed on a well-to-wake basis. Others, including Japan, think that, in the early stages of the road to decarbonisation at least, it should be restricted to a tank-to-wake approach.
And then there is the matter of the level of intermediate targets that need to be set either in 2030 or 2040 to get shipping on the road to its 2050 target.
The US has suggested some way of ensuring a minimum number of zero GHG emission ships are in operation in the medium term may be required.
For some member states, the 2050 date is simply too late.
One of the most ambitious proposals so far comes from the Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, New Zealand and Vanuatu — all countries affected by climate change. These countries have gone so far as to draw a draft resolution ready to be added to Marpol Annex VI and enter into force.
It calls for “complete emissions reduction no later than 2050, with more than 80% reduction by 2040, as calculated on a well-to-wake basis”.
Environmentalists and non-government organisations, including Greenpeace, have proposed that the zero-emission target should be achieved “well before 2050”.
Too much too soon
On the other side of the debate sit developing countries such as Brazil, Argentina and China that believe zero GHG emissions by 2050 may be too much, too soon and detrimental to the economies of developing countries.
Well-to-wake, or life-cycle emissions, refers to the entire process from fuel production, and delivery to using on board ships and all emissions produced therein. This process consists of two parts: well-to-tank and tank-to-wake.
India has suggested that the decarbonisation targets should be “phased in progressively so nobody gets left behind”, rather than opt for a firm 2050 date.
It said if shipping sets its targets too high, it “may blunt the competitive edge of the shipping industry pushing cargo to other modes of transport where economic measures do not exist or that is cheaper”.
Norway, South Korea and the World Shipping Council have suggested that the IMO will have to commit to establishing several green shipping corridors by 2030 and 2040 if it is to achieve its decarbonisation goals.
One IMO delegate said on the upcoming discussions: “The best the IMO can hope for is to narrow the focus of the debate so it can work towards some sort of consensus next year when it is committed to adopting the new target.”
Setting ambitious goals is one thing but whether the shipping industry is capable of achieving them is another matter.
Rapid shift
The UK has commissioned a report from environmental consultancy U-MAS to see whether zero emissions by 2050 is achievable.
The findings suggest shipping can achieve the goal of zero emissions by 2050 so long as there is “a rapid shift away from fossil fuels from the 2030s”.
But the report warned that each year’s delay in adopting will add $100bn to shipping’s decarbonisation bill.
“Delaying the start of shipping decarbonisation, to 2030, results in a more disruptive and turbulent change in technology and a higher total cost of the transition,” the UK government said in a submission to the IMO.
Greenpeace also highlighted the costs the world faces if there is inaction on climate change.
“Deloitte research reveals inaction on climate change could cost the world’s economy $178 trn by 2071,” it said in a paper submitted along with WWF, the Solomon Islands, Pacific Environment and the Clean Shipping Coalition.
“Climate-related disasters could cost the shipping industry up to $25bn every year by the end of the century,” it said.
