China's Ministry of Transport (MOT) has alerted China-flagged ships transiting or bound for the Malacca Straits to an expected attack.
The Security Level Three alert under China's International Ship Security Regulations (ISSR) went into effect as of 10:00pm Beijing time on Tuesday, according to multiple Chinese media sources citing the MOT announcement. The duration of the alert has not been determined.
A Level Three alert implies that an attack is likely.
China's ISSR has three levels of security.
Level One refers to ordinary practices to be observed at all times; Level Two to security practices during a period of heightened risk, and Level Three to times "when a security incident is likely or imminent", even if a specific target may not be known.
13 May: Four tankers including Bahri and Thome ships targeted in attacks off Fujairah
14 May: US claims Iran used mines, which Iran denies
13 June: Two tankers operated by Frontline and BSM hit by torpedoes or mines off Iran
15 June: Front Altair towed from Iranian waters as crew leave Iran
19 June: Insurance premiums spike as UAE declared high-risk area
The range of measures appropriate under Level Three range from restricting access to the vessel and controlling the movement of persons on board, to evacuating the vessel.
Dryad baffled
Security firm Dryad Global said: "The raising of the threat level for Chinese-flagged vessels has been unexpected, particularly as the regional dynamics within and surrounding the Malacca Strait are stable.
"Within the region, the nature of piracy has often been low level, and has involved the boarding of small barge craft for items such as scrap metal. It would therefore be a dramatic escalation were a Chinese vessel to be targeted, and there is currently no reporting to indicate that local groups involved in piracy possess the intent or capability to employ a new MO in this manner."
Its sources have indicated that China may have raised threat levels due to a specific threat of criminality, in this instance linked to cargo theft, but there is no indication that this poses a wider threat to commercial vessels.
Further reporting from local media sources has indicated that the threat posed to Chinese vessels may be Indonesian in origin.
Dryad currently assesses that there are no regional narratives or emerging threats which would support the Chinese decision.
"It is likely that China is reacting to a specific threat known only to China," it added.
Dryad does not believe that Level 3 is a necessary requirement for other vessels transiting the Strait of Malacca.
Shipowners already jumpy
The Chinese move comes at a time when the shipping sector is already on high alert in the Strait of Hormuz following tanker attacks in the Middle East in recent weeks.
Insurance premiums have been rising and boxship lines have been imposing war risk surcharges after six tankers were targeted by torpedoes and mines in two separate incidents between Fujairah and Iran.
Owners and managers like Frontline, Bahri and BSM have had vessels damaged. Some have been avoiding sailing at night.
The US has claimed Iran is behind the attacks, but Iran has denied this.
