Classification society DNV GL has come up with a forecast of how the world’s changing energy demand profile will hit the shipping markets.
In its report Maritime Forecast to 2050 it sees a decline in the transportation markets for traditional fossil fuels such as coal and oil while demand or the transportation of cleaner and alternative energy sources takes off.
But trade growth volumes could be hit too as the world starts to use its energy more efficiently and demand peaks.
DNV GL chief executive officer Remi Eriksen said: “Our energy transportation outlook shows that by mid century the energy supply mix is likely to be split equally between fossil and renewable. Advances in energy efficiency will also see the world’s demand for energy flattening after 2030. These trends will impact all players in the marine sector.”
Among DNV GL’s findings it forecasts trade will increase an average of 2.2% annually to 2030 but just 0.6% after that. The strongest growth will be in the container sector which will expand by 3.2% annually to 2030.
Bulk commodies will grow less that the average at 1.8% annually to 2030.
From 2030 onwards it predicts the world’s fuel mix will be more diverse and only 47% of the energy transported by shipping by 2050 will be oil based fuels. Gas transportation however will grow toward the mid century making up 32% of the fuel mix.
As the world moves to cleaner and alternative fuel the bulk, oil and oil products markets will fall peak around 2030.
