In an alert issued Monday morning Omar Nokta, an analyst at Clarkson Capital Markets, noted that brokers claim the 175,700-dwt C Prosperity (built 2011) recently changed hands for $30m.
The forecaster pointed out that this is approximately $3m lower than what his firm believes five-year-old capes are worth in today’s market.
If the sale is sealed Nokta noted the price tag would represent a low last seen in early 2003 but argued that the transaction does not represent a new benchmark.
“Nevertheless it is a telling sign that vessel prices are to some extent overstated,” the Manhattan-based forecaster continued.
“Recall in 2011 that 15-year-old VLCC values plummeted to just above scrap value, leading to a significant wave of scrapping in the crude tanker market for vessels older than 15 years and those entering their 15-year special survey.”
Nokta believes capes in this age category are worth roughly $13m. Since this is approximately $5m higher than what the same type of tonnage would achieve if it were sold for recycling, the analyst believes there is “further downside on the horizon for vintage vessels.”
“About 19% of the worldwide dry bulk fleet is above 15 years of age, and their demolition would go a long way in tightening the supply/demand balance,” he added.
“Already this year vessels have been sold for scrap at a run-rate of 4.5%, which would negate nearly all dry bulk deliveries scheduled for 2015.”
Analysts at RS Platou Markets believe asset prices in the capesize segment will fall 10% further before they hit rock bottom.
According to Compass Maritime Services, a sale-and-purchase broker based in the US, 16 bulkers with carrying capacities of 80,000-dwt or more have been sold for recycling thus far in 2015.
