Euronav’s purchase of four firm Metrostar VLCCs at $96m each was followed by Tsakos snapping up a pair of York Capital vessels at $97m.
At the same time Fred Cheng is on the comeback trail with five tankers lined up, Ridgebury has entered the sector and Centrofin and Dr Peters have sold older units.
VesselsValue.com says Centrofin’s sale of the 299,100-dwt Kalymnos (built 2000) for $39m, coupled with the Metrostar deal shows “values of modern VLCCs dropping while values for older tonnage have increased”.
Noah Parquette, an analyst at JP Morgan, addressed the issue in his weekly report, asking why modern VLCC prices are falling while rates are strong.
“It’s hard to say for certain, but perhaps falling input prices (steel, etc.) combined with weaker local currencies are putting pressure on the front end of the curve,” he reasoned.
“If that’s the case, then older ship values should be more stable, and the $57.5 million sale of a 2006-built VLCC [Dr Peters 306,500-dwt DS Vidonia] last week supports that theory.
“Lower newbuild prices due to lower shipyard costs could eventually pressure rates down if the move is somewhat permanent (remember rates are just a manifestation of shipowners’ cost of capital), but that should take years to filter through the market as new vessels are ordered and delivered.
“For the time being, current owners can enjoy the cash flow generation and pick up ships on the cheap.”
According to Doug Mavrinac of Jefferies, VLCC rates climbed by 32.2% to $68,720 per day last week.
EA Gibson says second hand VLCCs have seen around $7m added to their price tags this year.
The price of a VLCC newbuilding has fallen by 5% since last June to around $95m today, the broker said in its weekly report. This compares to a peak to $160m in January 2008.
“The summer period is usually a quiet time for tanker ordering on the basis on softening freight rates,” its researchers said.
“With OPECs recent decision not to step in and make any ‘correction’ to current crude production output and given pressure on shipyards to lower newbuilding prices, it could be interesting to see if a new wave of investment will be forthcoming.
“There are certainly a large number of keen market watchers looking for investment opportunities either on newbuild or second-hand and we don’t see an immediate end to some more large deals through the remainder of 2015.”