Clarksons chief executive Andi Case has shrugged off a comparison between today and the last super-cycle shipping experienced in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis.
The world’s largest shipbroker has logged record results for the past three full years driven by a cross-sector boom.
On Monday, it reported a first-half profit down only marginally on the all-time peak set in the first half of 2023.
“I think it’s a very different place than 2008,” Case told TradeWinds after the results were released.
“You have a very ageing fleet, and the fleet is getting older as we go forward, so the fleet demographic is completely different to 2008.
“So, obviously, we have a world in a very turbulent place right now, and we just have to see how that’s going to play out. There’s obviously a degree of caution for everybody just understanding how the whole game plays out in the geopolitics at the moment.
“In 2008, you had a record book, and we don’t have a record book today. Are we at the edge of a 2008 box? I don’t feel that at all.
“You’ve still got green transition to come through, you’ve got a significant old fleet. You’ve got a dark fleet that needs to be dealt with at some point, so there’s a lot of very big differences between now and 2008.”
The executive was talking to TradeWinds after Clarksons recorded a first-half profit of £51.5m ($65.9m), against the £53.1m booked in the first half of a record-setting 2023.
Case also reflected on the healthy newbuilding activity being supported by the demands of the green transition and a number of large projects, many of which have involved Clarksons.
He said shipowning companies recognise they need to modernise their fleets and be fit for tomorrow.
However, with newbuilding prices up 50% since 2020, he is not concerned about oversupply.
“For me, the idea that we’re going to completely saturate and flood the market from here on in is not a realistic one,” he said.
“Not at these prices do I think they’re going to have a tsunami of ordering like we had in the rise in 2006, 2008. I don’t see that happening because prices have already moved.”
Clarksons said profit in its shipbroking division, the largest contributor to its profitability, hit £53.4m, with revenue coming in at £247.7m.
Case said there were deals to be done in the sale-and-purchase market every day and he highlighted a rebound in the offshore business.
“Renewables and the offshore market is in a renaissance now,” he said, noting “very busy” S&P activity in the space — and a return to newbuilding orders.
“Just talking about ordering any new ship in the offshore market is a complete contrast to where we’ve been over the last few years,” he said.
“So it just shows that, with all the distressed assets we’ve been through, we’ve been very, very active in helping companies through that distressed era and resolving issues and selling assets.
“And then as utilisation picks up more, we’ve now got into ordering ships. So the fact that we’re talking about ordering ships in the offshore market, I think just shows what a transformation that market has gone through.
“And we’re extremely well placed now to look at the opportunities that that market will throw to us.”
