Clarksons is ready to react to more upheaval this year as the geopolitical landscape faces further seismic shifts.
The London-listed shipbroker’s chief executive, Andi Case, told TradeWinds the company has drawn up plans to cope with a range of scenarios as the Middle East crisis plays out.
“The tanker market is where it is for obvious reasons,” he said. “How long that’s going to be is as much a political discussion as it is a market discussion.”
“I don’t think there’s anyone in the world who could tell you what’s going to happen,” the CEO added.
Case pointed out that 2024 will also feature more major elections than at any other time in history.
“So there’s some change that’s going to happen. Our task is to react, and be the first to react, and assist our clients with whatever changes come,” he told TradeWinds.
Clarksons expects the tanker market to see a continuation of strong but volatile market conditions.
The supply side remains very supportive, with newbuilding deliveries set to fall to extremely low levels in 2024, while fleet carrying capacity is also expected to be constrained by environmental regulations, the London shop believes.
In product tanker markets, further increases in refinery throughput in the Middle East look set to provide market support.
The company argues that the Red Sea situation and more limited transits at the drought-hit Panama Canal have the potential to create a substantial increase in vessel demand should disruption persist or worsen.
Tanker sales slowed marginally in 2023 to 57m dwt, but this was still the second-highest level on record after 2022 and remained 41% above the 10-year trend, the broker said.
Big-ticket deals
Asset prices were on the up, with Clarksons’ sale-and-purchase teams focusing on “higher value transactions that yielded notable success in the larger tanker segments”.
S&P desks have expanded in London, Oslo, Singapore, Tokyo and Athens.
“This expansion, alongside a new team in Dubai, helped drive progress forward in 2023 and positions the division well to leverage opportunities in 2024, when volatility and market dynamics relating to Red Sea disruption and positive tonne-mile growth trends look likely to remain in focus,” Clarksons said.
Case added that buyers are there for secondhand tankers and they have not been put off by higher prices from clinching big deals.
But he admitted: “It’s not always easy to sell a ship when you’re earning as much money as you want.”
The CEO said the group is doing “very good transactions” in tanker S&P.
“Any negotiation should be a little bit of a challenge, but we’re very capable brokers,” he added.
