Volatile shipping markets have made it hard for any overall rate conclusions to be made this year, as shown by mixed messages in the Clarksea index of all major shipping sectors.
Clarksons Research said Covid-19 has brought huge disruption this year, with its latest index point of earnings of $11,000 per day 50% below that logged at the end of 2019 and 26% below the 2019 average.
The figure remains close to the level at the start of June 2019, however, and the index is actually 53% higher than 2019 so far this year, and 17% up on the average across 2019 as a whole.
But the $11,000 per day measurement is also below the post-financial crisis average of $12,250.
The rollercoaster ride is summed up by a range of $20,000 in the highest and lowest points of the index over the last year.
By comparison, the range over the last 10 years was $13,600.
Tankers driving spikes
Clarksons Research analyst Trevor Crowe said: "Drilling down, the tanker sector has seen the greatest volatility, and has been the key driver of the ClarkSea Index trend since the fourth quarter.".
In March 2020, against a backdrop of huge energy market volatility and the development of a major surplus of oil following the impact of Covid-19 on global oil demand, a surge in tankers being hired for floating storage led to another tanker spike.
Crowe said storage capacity reached 11% of the oil tanker fleet in May.
Clarksons' weighted average earnings figure hit $98,000 per day for the sector at its highest level.
So far this year, tanker earnings have averaged 99% above 2019, though are now easing back.
But the tanker market has obscured trends in other sectors, Crowe added.
Bulkers down on 2019
Bulkers had a better second half of 2019, but 2020 so far has been weak. The year to date average is 46% below 2019, and 60% down currently.
Containership earnings are heading steadily downwards, off 26% on 2019 currently.
In the gas sector, VLGC earnings were robust for much of 2019 and early 2020 but are now coming under pressure, Clarksons Research said.
Spot rates have fallen from $60,000 per day in April to around $20,000 now.
The Clarksons index has VLGC earnings down 21% on 2019 this week.
"In addition, earnings across the spectrum have been impacted by fuel costs post-IMO 2020 and differentials for scrubber-fitted ships," Crowe said.
"Tanker earnings currently look less liable to dominate the trend, but with huge uncertainty around Covid-19 impacts, trade growth, energy demand and storage, and the scrubber retrofit programme amongst other factors, there remain plenty of story lines to follow."
The October 2019 and March 2020 tanker spikes saw the index jump to $30,000 per day, levels not seen since before the onset of the global financial crisis 12 years ago.
The 2019 index averaged out at $15,000 per day, the best since 2008.
