First, the bad news. The impact of climate change is likely to cost billions of dollars in repairs to ports from climate change-related rising sea levels and harsher storms. The worst news: the bill is set to double.
A study by academics at Oxford University last year analysing 1,340 ports after extreme weather events warned of annual costs of $7.5bn from such devastation. The knock-on impact on trade threatened to cost the global economy another $63bn.
Follow-up studies by the researchers have found that by 2050, those infrastructure damage costs were likely to double, owing to environmental impacts that will happen whatever governments do next.
Lead researcher Jasper Verschuur told TradeWinds that computer modelling suggested a sharp escalation in the potential cost of damage to port infrastructure even if global governments’ collective action brings down emissions sharply over the next 25 years.
The initial study suggested that the Port of Houston in Texas faced the greatest potential cost from a combination of cyclones and flooding.
Rising seas
But the burden of risk is likely to shift from ports in the path of devastating hurricanes and cyclones to ones facing growing threats from rising sea levels.
Countries such as the UK and the Netherlands have already adapted to significant storm surges of several metres — but smaller sea rises will have devastating impacts on other ports, Verschuur said.
Low-lying islands, such as Pacific Ocean states that are already reliant on seaborne trade, will be among those that face the greatest potential impact.
“By 2050, irrespective of what climate scenarios we will be entering, the risk will increase by a factor of two compared to the present day,” said Verschuur, now an assistant professor at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
“Some people say we don’t know what the future will do, so maybe we shouldn’t take action and wait for the evidence. This to me is stupid, it doesn’t matter what scenario we’re entering because the risk will increase nonetheless.”
The study was based on current levels of port capacity but with global trade likely to increase under most forecasts, new infrastructure will have to be built with rising seas in mind.
This would bring opportunities for emerging economies that are planning new facilities — while major economies face costly remediation projects to future-proof their ports.
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