Green ammonia produced from solar power will be key to ensuring the costs of the future fuel remain competitive, but investment of $2trn is needed, according to researchers.
An Oxford University paper claims that if shipping switches to green ammonia to decarbonise, demand would be up to four times the current grey ammonia production of about 180m tonnes.
That would call for infrastructure investments of $2trn, with half required in low and middle-income countries, researchers said.
In the paper, the researchers examined the potential maximum demand and costs for green ammonia in shipping and the locations likely to produce it cheaply and able to ship it to the locations where it will be most needed.
“The greatest investment need, and opportunity, is in Northern and Western Australia, which is projected to become the main supplier for Asian markets,” the authors wrote.
“Large production clusters are also predicted in Chile (to meet demand in South America), California (to meet demand in the western US), North-West Africa (to meet European demand), and southern Arabian Peninsula (to meet local demand and in parts of south Asia).”
They also pointed to the lower production costs of using solar photovoltaic cells to produce green hydrogen compared with wind.
The research paper modelled scenarios including weather profiles to determine energy volumes available from wind and the sun, as well as available land for building energy infrastructure.
Researchers also incorporated pipeline costs, port costs and storage as well as charter rates for gas carriers able to ship the fuels from the sites of production.
What the paper fails to mention is the current investments in green methanol production sites which will compete for the green hydrogen needed.
The paper, Optimal fuel supply of green ammonia to decarbonise global shipping, examined data from the global fleet size and movements in 2019 and focused on key routes to determine two possible 2050 scenarios.
In a more moderate scenario with fleet adoption of 70%, the research claims the levelised production cost of green ammonia would be $260 per tonne, with energy produced by solar cells costing $14.4/MWh and onshore wind energy costing $21.9 MWh.
