The US presidential election poses a threat to some of the most profitable shipping markets in decades, Euronav believes.
The tanker, bulker and container ship company said on Thursday that the new resident of the White House could have a big impact on global geopolitics.
Either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be in charge following November’s poll, with Euronav expecting shipping to be “at the forefront of any shifts in the current status quo”.
“The shipping industry is experiencing some of the highest returns in decades, with expectations for this cycle to continue in the coming years,” the shipowner said.
“Yet caution prevails, as any easing of sanctions that reinstates pre-war trading patterns — particularly for Russian oil trade and the Red Sea passage — poses a downside risk to tonne-mile demand,” the company argued.
Euronav also said a more aggressive stance against China and a potential increase in trade tariffs would negatively affect global trade and shipping.
The Saverys family-owned group noted that the growth in underlying volume and significant disruptions to trade patterns, notably due to the Red Sea rerouting, had again been beneficial to freight rates in the second quarter.
Following a 2.4% increase in seaborne trade last year, UK shipbroker Clarksons expects 2024 will see an “above trend” volume growth, projecting trade to reach 12.6bn tonnes, a rise of 2.3%.
China has been a key driver, with global export shares at 14.5% over the past year, which is higher than the pre-Covid and “pre-trade tensions” era, according to Morgan Stanley.
But Chinese oil imports remain below the trailing 12-month trend for the past six months, Euronav pointed out.
