Clarksons Research has some sobering news for a tanker market yet to see a real boost from winter oil demand.
Peering into its crystal ball, the UK group is positive about 2025 but says there is potential for the tanker market to see some softening in 2026.
This is because vessel supply growth is expected to accelerate following the strong pace of newbuilding orders.
Crude tanker market fundamentals appear relatively balanced, the company added.
Initial projections suggest fleet growth of 2.4% and dwt demand growth of 2% for 2026, on the basis of Red Sea disruption continuing.
Meanwhile, the products sector could see further easing in 2026, with firm fleet growth of 6.2% expected to outpace gains in demand of 2.4%, the company said.
The tanker market has softened in recent months, following a period of historically firm earnings over the last couple of years.
While there have been some signs of seasonal improvements in the fourth quarter, gains have been more limited than initially anticipated, Clarksons Research said.
Average earnings rose by 15% month on month to $28,223 per day in October, but they are still down 25% from last year.
Vessel demand has faced pressure recently amidst persistently softer trends in global oil demand, particularly in China, ongoing Opec+ output cuts and weak refinery throughput, as well as ongoing outages in Russia.
‘Relatively positive’ heading into 2025
“That said, 2024 has still been a positive year for the tanker sector overall, with average weighted tanker earnings standing at $37,642 per day across January to October, 26% above the 10-year average,” the London-headquartered firm said.
“Tanker markets are expected to continue to receive support from vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope amid Red Sea disruption, continuing longer-haul Russia/European related trade patterns, and limited fleet growth in the near-term,” it added.
The outlook appears “relatively positive” heading into 2025, the company believes.
Crude tanker demand growth may pick up, with seaborne crude volumes projected to grow by 2.1% next year.
However, a range of scenarios clearly exist, with Chinese oil demand in particular focus, Clarksons explained.
Nevertheless, firm growth in the long-haul Atlantic-Asia trade and constraints on fleet supply are expected to provide underlying support, it added.
Overall, crude tanker demand is currently projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, while trading fleet growth is expected to be limited to 1.2%.
The outlook for 2025 still suggests potential for the crude tanker market to strengthen, Clarksons said.
On the clean side, underlying support remains from Red Sea rerouting, providing a 5% uplift to products tonne-mile trade, and continued longer-haul Russian flows, with some seasonal upside still possible in the coming weeks.
However, looking ahead, the outlook for 2025 suggests product tanker market easing compared to the firm levels seen in recent years, with fleet capacity growth expected to pick up to 5.6%, while product tanker deadweight demand is projected to increase by 2.9%.
