Norwegian shipowners have been told to brace themselves for the new geopolitical normal.
The potential for a second stint for Donald Trump in the White House, the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tensions between China and Taiwan, and the threat of trade wars were all discussed at the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association annual conference on Thursday.
“We have to think a bit differently about areas where we, especially in the past, have been used to having almost only progress,” said Ine Eriksen Soreide during a panel discussion on geopolitics.
The chair of the Norwegian Parliament’s standing committee of foreign affairs and defence said the world has grown accustomed to free trade, fair elections and an overall upward trend in the human condition.
“Now, we have to understand that energy policy has close links to security policy, we have to understand that trade policy has close links to security policy,” she said. “And this has to reshape our minds a bit.”
The conflict in Ukraine has reshuffled oil trading patterns and the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea — ostensibly stemming from Israel’s incursion into Gaza — have forced vessels to opt for the Cape of Good Hope.
Shipowners’ association chief executive Harald Solberg said those issues have created some short-term commercial opportunities, but “in the long term, this is of great concern for our industry”.
“Our industry is built on trade, worldwide trade. Without shipping, we couldn’t lift anyone out of poverty,” he said.
Solberg said shipping was not prepared for the pandemic and agreed with fellow panellist Gerald Butts that the industry needs to plan for diverse scenarios.
Butts, vice chairman and senior adviser at the Eurasia Group, said companies should build around the employees who have proved the best in crises.
“I think every firm underestimates itself and its people,” he said. “And I think we proved to ourselves and each other during the Covid crisis that when you have to accomplish difficult things, that can be done.”
