Record levels of US crude exports into Europe are driving up tanker rates, brokers and analysts say.
Consultancy Kpler tallies an all-time high 1.36m barrels per day booked on vessels heading to Rotterdam last week.
This is the equivalent of more than a suezmax per day, assuming all loadings will fully discharge.
The high volume of imports to the key hub comes as the Brent-West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price spread has widened, with WTI being the cheapest crude in the Brent basket, Kpler explained.
The previous weekly export record to Rotterdam was set in June 2023.
UK shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners assessed Galveston to Rotterdam VLCC rates at a lump sum of $3.4m, or $46,377 per day, against $39,600 from the Middle East to Asia.
Suezmaxes were earning more than $39,000 per day from the US to northern Europe, while Houston to Rotterdam aframaxes have risen beyond $48,000 per day.
Shipping researcher Breakwave Advisors said there were signs of firmer market sentiment for VLCC owners in both the Atlantic and Asia, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted despite oil prices edging lower.
In West Africa, VLCC rates rebounded, driven by renewed demand for cargoes to India and Europe.
Owners keen to finish on a high
The recovery has been largely sentiment-driven, with owners eager to end the year on a positive note, Breakwave said.
“Looking ahead, VLCC owners appear well-positioned to hold their ground throughout the fourth quarter, especially with activity in the Atlantic showing signs of growth,” the researcher added.
Petrobras’ recent announcement to maximise oil output, coupled with fluctuating oil prices, has provided a further boost to sentiment, it argued.
The tanker market is recovering as the growth in new vessel supply shrinks, while oil demand remains elevated in line with the global economy, the company said.
“A historically low orderbook combined with favourable shifting trade patterns should continue to support increased spot rate volatility, which combined with the ongoing geopolitical turmoil, should support freight rates in the medium to long term,” it added.
