UK shipbroker Clarksons is predicting continued strong tanker markets through 2025, as fundamentals all point to a favourable supply-demand balance.
The Clarksons Research division has issued positive forecasts for key market indicators, particularly for crude ships.
“Expectations are for another positive year in the tanker market in 2025, notably in the crude sector, with the tanker fleet provisionally projected to grow by 1%, due to the moderate orderbook,” the company said.
Total tanker demand is expected to grow by 3%. Oil trade volumes are projected to grow by 2%, with output, demand and global refinery capacity expected to increase, though more moderately than in 2024, the brokerage believes.
“The average haul of oil trade is projected to continue to rise, amid further growth in Atlantic-Asia crude trade, though steady products average haul growth is expected amid more balanced growth across intra- and inter-regional routes,” Clarksons said.
UK shipbroker Howe Robinson Partners said VLCC owners are hoping to see more activity in the US Gulf this week after the Thanksgiving holidays.
“The Middle East Gulf should have plenty of business left for the second decade so we are likely to see some business,” the London shop added.
The brokerage does not expect the market to “run away”, but decent activity would mean last week’s dip would represent the low point.
Tanker earnings have improved significantly in October and have continued to strengthen into November, with Clarksons calculating a jump in average rates of 40% month-on-month to $37,771 per day in October — the highest level since May.
Crude tanker average earnings surged to nearly $80,000 per day in early November, with support from robust Atlantic cargo volumes.
Firm Atlantic exports
“In the coming months, a range of factors could help support firm market conditions, including firm Atlantic exports, strong Russian exports to Asia and seasonal trends,” the company said.
The upside could be limited by Opec+ supply curbs, with the possibility of more to come, the broker added.
Seaborne products trade is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024.
Clarksons said that there will be ongoing support from rising oil demand, new refinery capacity and some potential for positive impacts from Panama Canal transit restrictions due to trade flows rerouting to longer distances.
Tonne-mile trade is expected to grow faster than volumes, with a 6.3% hike forecast in 2024.
