The coming US driving season will offer a boost to product tanker demand even though rate gains could be curbed by tonnage oversupply, according to Alphatanker.
Spot MR tanker earnings in the Atlantic basin tend to enjoy a seasonal upturn ahead of summer, with US oil firms replenishing gasoline stocks as American drivers hit the road.
While the pattern was disrupted in 2020 due to pandemic-related lockdown measures, Alphatanker said “hopes are high” that this season will see many more tanker shipments.
“As the driving season ramps up towards its seasonal mid-summer high, all the signs are starting to point to an increase in US gasoline imports,” the AMXMarine research unit said in a note.
“The last few weeks have started to see volumes rebound very much in line with seasonal patterns as US gasoline market participants look to build sufficient inventory ahead of the ramp up in demand.”
Kpler data shows Europe’s gasoline exports to the US Atlantic coast are set to reach 374,000 barrels per day (bpd) this month, much higher than 103,000 bpd in April 2020.
Cargo flows on this trade amounted to 379,000 bpd in the same month of 2019 and 335,000 bpd in 2018.
Official figures suggest US gasoline demand has gradually normalised as mass vaccination continues to take place across the world’s largest auto fuel consumer.
Gasoline stocks on the US Atlantic coast stood at 64.8m barrels on 16 April, down from 73.9m barrels a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Analysts at Alphatanker believe European refiners are well positioned to benefit from recovering US gasoline demand.
“The European refining industry is stuck in a rut amid lacklustre end user demand and high refined product inventories,” they said.
“We anticipate that stronger US gasoline import demand should help to drain European inventories.”
But transatlantic freight rates have been weak recently despite brightened demand picture.
Clarksons Platou Securities assessed the triangulated earnings for a non-eco, non-scrubber MR at $6,600 per day on Thursday, down 22.4% since 15 April.
“We attribute this [weakness] to the current overtonnaged nature of the Atlantic basin,” Alphatanker said.
Alphatanker has forecast that the global MR2 fleet will grow by 5.3% this year, with 104 newbuildings set to hit the water and 15 units expected to be scrapped.
