Christian Waldegrave, head of research at Teekay, expects a stable oil price and continued high OPEC production has the market set fair for the next few months.
“Looking ahead in July there is no reason not to expect rates to stay pretty strong,” he said in a tanker market update.
“As we go through the summer months we expect rates will stay pretty high in that $30,000 to $40,000 per day range we are seeing on the suezmax and the aframax,” he added in a video the owner posted on YouTube.
Looking into next year, Waldgrave noted “a couple of risk factors” starting to emerge.
“Fleet growth does start to grow as we go into 2016 from about 2% this year to about 4% next year,” he said. “And we will see some higher growth as well on the VLCCs and suezmaxes."
Waldegrave added: “We don’t know as well what is going to happen with the oil price.
“If the oil price does start to increase as we go into next year that could dampen some of the positive demand fundamentals that we have over the next few months and into 2016.”
However, Teekay don’t expect any kind of collapse in rates over the next few months and into 2016.
“Our outlook for next year is that rates will remain firm but maybe not as strong as we are seeing at the moment where we have pretty much got every factor that is affecting tankers is positive,” Waldegrave said.
