Peak oil demand is unlikely to be reached this decade as populations push back against “unrealistic” net zero emission goals, according to the head of Opec.
In a call for continued investment in the oil industry, Opec secretary general Haitham Al Ghais said global demand is likely to reach 116m barrels per day (bpd) by 2045. Global demand topped 100m bpd last year.
“Given these growth trends, it is a challenge to see peak oil demand by the end of the decade, a mere six years away,” he wrote in an article on the Opec website.
“Time and again, oil has defied expectations regarding peaks. Logic and history suggest that it will continue to do so.”
The comments reflect different outlooks between the Opec group of oil producers and the 31-nation International Energy Agency, whose membership includes major producers such as the US and leading consumer nations.
The agency has predicted peak oil before 2030 caused by a global push for green energy driven by an economic slowdown in China and surging electric car use. Opec says surging Asian demand will continue to drive the market.
The forecasts matter to the tanker market. The difference between Opec’s predicted demand increase of 2.2m bpd in 2024 and the IEA’s estimate of half that is equivalent to nearly four VLCC cargoes a week.
Opec lobbied delegates at December’s COP28 climate summit in Dubai, urging its members and allies to reject any mention of fossil fuels in the final agreement.
The agreement signalled the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era as part of efforts to keep global warming within 1.5C of pre-industrial levels.
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