Aframax utilisation has hit a four-month high after Libyan barrels returned to the market following the ending of September’s force majeure.
Production recovered to 1.3m barrels per day on Sunday, according to state producer NOC, which noted record levels of production from the Sharara field.
BRS Group said crude shipments are also on track to fully return to normal.
This week, the brokerage is estimating exports on tankers to top 1m bpd, up 17% from last week and the equivalent of a suezmax cargo each day.
And overall Mediterranean crude exports are set to rise 20% week on week.
As fewer ships were in ballast in the West, the ratio of laden to empty tankers reached the highest level since May, BRS added, before easing back a little this week.
This has capped momentum on the cross-Med TD19 route, which nevertheless stands at its highest mark since early June.
The Baltic Exchange assessed combined aframax rates at $39,500 per day on Monday, up 85% in a month.
Despite higher Russian crude exports, BRS is not dismissing the possibility of lower utilisation next month.
“The initial positive freight shock from Libya’s exports ramping up is likely to also normalise as we head into November,” it said.
Middle East rate gains
Libya’s eastern administration shut down oil production last month in a dispute over control of revenue that has since been resolved.
The country was producing 1.2m bpd before the stoppage. Kpler reported that September exports averaged 460,000 bpd.
Shipbroker Gibsons said last week was another busy one for aframaxes in the Middle East Gulf as well.
Steady increments to rates were seen.
“The list of tonnage options is thinning and charterers need to take care,” the London shop added.
Aframaxes in the US Gulf were experiencing a similar phenomenon to that of a couple of weeks ago, with spot tonnage waiting days for business.
The northern European market had been “on the precipice of allowing charterers the ability to claw back some value”, Gibsons said.
However, a much-needed injection of activity altered conditions rather quickly, it added.
