Clarksons Research is optimistic that ships will be transporting more cargo this year after a fall in 2022 volumes.
The UK research company said that a range of economic headwinds resulted in a drop of 0.5% in global seaborne trade last year to 11.9bn tonnes.
“Though the world economy clearly retains vulnerabilities, as the recent banking sector turmoil illustrates, some of the negative trends have begun to moderate in early 2023,” analyst Trevor Crowe said.
Inflation and China’s weak economic performance were blamed for 2022’s dip, which compared to a 3.4% post-Covid rebound in 2021.
Container and dry bulk trades came under notable pressure, with volumes down by 3.7% and 2.7% respectively, Crowe added.
Oil trade saw clear gains, however, up 4.8%, while LNG volumes grew 4.7% in tonnes but fell 1.8% in tonne-miles.
LPG volumes rose 5.8% and car shipments by 7%.
“Global seaborne trade still faces pressures, but some more encouraging data points have emerged into 2023,” Crowe said.
Clarksons’ monthly global seaborne trade indicator was up 1.7% year-on-year in January and February.
The three-month moving average was 0.7% higher, the first positive reading since July 2022.
This partly reflects Indonesia’s coal export ban in early 2022, but oil and gas trade also saw a firm start to 2022, up 3% in the first two months.
Car carriers off to record start
Iron ore is 7% higher after less weather disruption than last year. Vehicle trades have risen 15%, a record start to a year.
Container trade remains a weak spot, falling 8% in January and February.
Clarksons is projecting overall growth at a “moderate” 1.6% for 2023.
Global macroeconomic pressures could ease, while China’s reopening after persistent Covid disruption should lend support in a number of commodities, though vulnerabilities in the global economy need monitoring,” Crowe added.
Seaborne energy trades, including oil, gas and steam coal, are forecast to grow by 3.3% this year, Crowe said.
Non-energy volumes will increase by just 0.6%.
“So, after a step backwards in 2022, seaborne trade volumes have seen some encouraging signs recently,” the analyst added.
“Complexities continue to develop, however, and shipping markets could find support from not just increased volumes but extra distance too,” he said.
