The cost to coastal states of cleaning up after a shadow tanker oil spill in South East Asia could hit $1.6bn, according to a new report.

Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) said on Friday that the rise of shadow fleets, coupled with uncertainties surrounding their regulation and insurance, makes a “catastrophic” ecological event inevitable.

Shadow fleet tankers hauling sanctioned oil cargoes have been involved in at least 50 incidents, including collisions and oil spills, according to a report by insurer Allianz in May, and concerns have been raised about who will pay for a major accident.

The absence of insurance for ships may force coastal states to bear the financial burden of any spills.

Based on industry spill cost data, Crea estimates that the clean-up costs following an accident involving an aframax tanker could reach $859m in Europe and $1.6bn in South East Asia.

It said that the Dover, Gibraltar and Danish straits in Europe have all seen significant increases in shadow fleet traffic in line with the growth of the Russia-related fleet.

Other global chokepoints in the Suez Canal, Korean Straits and Malacca have also seen marked increases in shadow fleet traffic between 2022 and 2024.

The report’s lead author, Petras Katinas, said: “These ageing ships transport Russian crude oil from ports in Europe and the Pacific to Asian countries, navigating challenging maritime chokepoints under opaque conditions with questionable insurance.

“In the likely event of an accident and oil spill, the question of who will bear the economic cost remains unresolved.”

The group said tankers navigating international straits should be required to demonstrate proof of protection and indemnity cover.

The Danish and Swedish governments have called for greater restrictions on under-insured elderly vessels passing close to its shores but have been wary of intervening to restrict the freedom of navigation.

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