Shipping markets are set for unpredictable months ahead, with geopolitical crises, uncertainty over Chinese and Western economic prospects and environmental impacts all playing a role, says Veson Nautical.
Prospects appear most bullish for the tanker market, which is set to improve deep into 2026 for crude carriers, according to research by senior content analyst Rebecca Galanopoulos Jones.
Rates are expected to remain volatile as uncertainty remains over Russian export volumes.
The impact of the sanctions regime remains unclear amid the potential for more production cuts by Opec+ as oil heads towards $100 per barrel.
“Tonne-mile demand expectations in 2024 and beyond remain strong in our current base case,” Galanopoulos Jones wrote.
“During 2024, tonne-mile demand will be boosted by the impact of vessels avoiding the Red Sea, a development which could be reversed during the next couple of years of our forecast period.”
The redirection of shipping because of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea adds 10 to 14 days to voyage times, increasing insurance costs but boosting shipping revenues.
European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said on Monday that only half of the 70 ships that were using the Suez Canal before the crisis were now transiting daily.
Traffic through the Suez Canal was down 64% in March compared with a year earlier, according to the International Monetary Fund-backed PortWatch project.
Total shipping volume equivalent to 2% of 2023 global maritime trade has been diverted from the Red Sea since mid-December, it said. That was equivalent to about 2,900 ships.
Galanopoulos Jones said the bulker market is fundamentally strong, with canal disruptions also contributing to the market along with heavy Chinese investment in green energy projects.
Veson predicted demand growth of 3.1% for container ships from 2024 to 2027 but with declining rates in the second half of 2024 and the first half of next year.
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