Ifchor Galbraiths thinks Donald Trump’s return to the White House could boost the US refined products market.
The broker said the country has an ageing refinery base and, citing International Energy Agency data, added that capacity is set to drop by 400,000 barrels per day by 2030.
“There could be a range of policies going forward that could have an impact on the US refined products market,” Ifchor Galbraiths said in a note published on Friday.
Like many, the shipbroker expects the impending Trump administration to be friendlier to fossil fuels and more hostile to renewables and green energy.
Another impact would be removing biofuel blending requirements, as he did his first term in office, it said.
“[This would hurt] bio demand, whilst helping to increase demand for more traditional feedstocks,” it said.
“Any trade tariffs imposed as part of wider protectionist measures could impact imports of feedstock, and products that support production, potentially putting downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on domestic prices.”
Much has been made about the potential impact Trump’s second term in office would have on the shipping industry following his sweeping victory on Tuesday.
Additional and higher tariffs seem to be a foregone conclusion, given his campaign rhetoric.
While this would not directly impact the tanker sector, any trade war could see buyers from targeted countries such as China shun US crude oil.
But Trump is also expected to be tougher on Iran.
Like many, Ifchor Galbraiths said if stricter policies towards Iran curb its oil exports, the independent refiners buying Chinese oil would have to look to Opec to make up the difference, benefiting mainstream shipping at the expense of the dark fleet.
