Opec holds the key to an even stronger tanker market when the oil cartel and its allies meet on Thursday.
Clarksons Securities said on Monday that its baseline VLCC rate would fall from $84,000 per day to $76,000 per day if Opec+ maintains its 1m barrel per day (bpd) supply cut through 2024 when it convenes for the virtual meeting.
Rates would fall to $69,000 per day if a further 500,000-bpd cut is made and to $62,000 per day if the cuts are 500,000 bpd deeper.
“The upcoming Opec+ meeting may thus have a negative impact on tanker markets and earnings projections,” Clarksons Securities analyst Frode Morkedal said.
“Despite the immediate challenges that potential Opec+ cuts may pose, the long-term outlook for the tanker market remains positive. This optimism is supported by the tanker fleet’s stagnant growth in coming years.”
The investment banking arm of the shipbroking giant said the fleet weighted average for VLCCs was $62,000 per day on Monday, down 8% from last week but up 35.4% from last month as the market nears the seasonally stronger winter months.
It assessed an eco-designed, scrubber-fitted VLCC — the highest-earning type of VLCC — sailing from the US Gulf to China as earning $58,700 per day; from the Middle East Gulf to China at $64,200 per day; and from West Africa to China at $66,000 per day.
It remains a question as to how much Opec+ could cut. The meeting was reportedly delayed while Saudi Arabia tried to persuade other members to agree to production cuts.
On Monday, there was a single VLCC fixture, according to Tankers International: the 299,600-dwt DHT Jaguar (built 2015) to Petrobras for $62,426 per day for loading in late December in Brazil for a journey to the US West Coast.
The fixture follows a flurry of activity last week, including eight deals signed on Thursday.
The richest was $126,722 per day for AET Tankers’ 299,600-dwt Eagle Vellore (built 2023) for a journey from the North Sea to East Asia for Trafigura. The ship will load in mid-December.
The rate, however, is lower, $69,854 per day, when taken on a round voyage basis.
