The attack last Wednesday on an LNG tanker in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — and possibly a second that same day — is the latest in a series of incidents off the coast of Yemen.
The missile attacks on US Navy warships and a United Arab Emirate (UAE) military supply ship in the weeks before have raised tensions in the area and undoubtedly increased the risks for commercial traffic. This latest incident, the first on a commercial vessel since July, will heighten fears among crews using the strait on their way to and from the Suez Canal.
In October alone we have seen the warship USS Mason targeted by two sea skimming anti-ship missiles; there was an approach by Somali pirates on a merchant vessel 482 kilometres (300 miles) off Somalia on 22 October; and worryingly there are reports that ISIS have captured a coastal town in Puntland, one of the northern states of Somalia.
This succession of incidents is perhaps evidence that the generally unstable situation in both Somalia and Yemen is again spilling over into the maritime environment, and is effectively undermining the once successful security framework at sea.
As the world, quite rightly, focuses on the agonies of Aleppo and western military surveillance assets are concentrated and at full stretch on the struggle for Mosul, it is becoming apparent that we may be losing our ability to guarantee the safety of commercial shipping in the strategically vital sea lanes.
The last successful Somali pirate attack on a western commercial vessel was over four years ago in May 2012. Since then, the Somali pirate kingpins have largely kept their “business” activities in line with the wishes of the Somali Federal Government. Admittedly there have been hijackings of regional fishing vessels, and seafarers have continued to be held hostage in Somalia.
These are worrying signs that have been rightly picked up by Western naval forces operating in the Indian Ocean when they have repeatedly warned that parts of the eastern seaboard of Somalia remain permissive to pirate activity. The recent incident off the Somali coast is an indication that their fears are well founded.
Meanwhile, the continuation of the Yemeni civil war with no clear end in sight is having an increasingly destabilising effect on the region as a whole.
Aside from the obvious and regrettable human suffering resulting from the conflict, the conditions in Yemen are fertile ground for criminal activity, as well as contributing to an intensification of violence by all parties. Attacks on vessels operating in the southern Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aden are just an extension of this.
The continued reduction in naval forces in the region does not place the west in a good position should these recent incidents be harbingers of what may come.
This comes at a time when commercial shipping has noticeably lowered its guard, either entirely abandoning armed protection, or reducing the quality of armed teams.
A concerted campaign by the Somali pirate investors to hijack commercial vessels would very likely meet with success. Similarly, an attempt to close off the Bab-al-Mandeb, or to disrupt traffic flows, is not beyond the bounds of reason and would result in significant financial and physical damage to world shipping and trade.
It is time for all concerned to take note and act, so that we do not continue to undermine the hard won security gains made in the region hitherto.
